Risk homeostasis (also known as ‘risk compensation’) is a subconscious mental process that regulates risk assessment.  It explains why we slow down on sharp turns and then speed up on straight-a-ways.  This process feels so natural we fail to realize our actions are on autopilot.  Anytime risk is perceived to change, we automatically adjust our actions either increasing or decreasing to maintain a predetermined ‘target level’ of risk.  Each person is different and every individual has their own acceptable level of risk.  Almost every aspect of our lives is influenced by this ‘risk thermostat’ – how much money we make, how we drive, who we marry and how we treat other people – every thing related to risk.

In a Munich taxicab experiment half of a fleet of cabs were equipped with an antilock braking system (ABS); the other half had standard brakes.  The accident rate for both types of cars (ABS and non-ABS) remained the same.  The drivers with ABS took more risks to compensate for the increased safety afforded by the superior braking system.  The “target level” of risk remained unchanged.

Similarly, in the late 1970s a province in western Canada undertook a massive anti-drunk driving campaign.  They succeeded in reducing the accident rate due to drunken driving by nearly 18%.  However, during the same period accidents caused by other factors increased by 19%.  People become more aware of the risks involved while driving under the influence but drove more dangerously at other times to compensate.

The same phenomenon appears in Christianity.  Many denominational beliefs have a powerful reciprocal action.  For example groups that believe “once saved always saved” seem to have a much higher propensity for sexual sin and perversion.  Pornography among these groups is very high.  The risk of losing salvation is eliminated so the odds go way up on other factors.  Why not if there is nothing to lose?

The primary reason most Christians don’t drink is not because they think it is a sin, but because they believe it is a bad witness.  The risk of alcoholism to either themselves or to those around them is just too high.  Correspondingly obesity among non-drinking Christians is significant.  The lower risk of accidents or death due to alcohol is offset by increased risk of stoke or heart attack due to fats and sugars.

Risk compensation helps explain why there is such a large turnover rate in churches.  Typically 50% or more of new converts drop out of church within the first year.  Risk thermostats set by the world are difficult to change.  People’s subconscious response to godliness is to automatically increase risk (otherwise known as desire) in other areas of life which challenges their new faith.

The new arenas of risk catch the newborn Christian completely off guard and many times cause them to fall or backslide!  The devil gets a lot of press for attacking the new guys but the truth be known it is our own internal mechanisms that are destroying us.  2 Peter 2:20 says so clearly, “after escaping the pollutions of the world through the knowledge of the Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, they are again entangled therein, and overcome, the latter end is worse with them than the beginning.” A good question might be, “Do you have negative reciprocals?”

The greatest obstacle to change is the status quo as established in our own subconscious.  The Good News is we can be transformed into the image of Christ by the power of His word and our true desire to change.

Rocky J. Malloy